For Québec commercial real estate investors, 2026 has already been a year in which uncertainty has played an unusually important role in investment decisions.

Interest rates, construction costs, financing conditions and economic growth were already influencing underwriting. Now, the deterioration of Canada–U.S. trade relations adds another variable that investors, developers, lenders and property owners need to consider.

The question for our industry is not simply whether tariffs are good or bad.

The more important question is: What do they mean for commercial real estate values, investment decisions and transaction activity in Québec?

The Situation Has Changed

Canada and the United States spent months negotiating their economic relationship and the future of North American trade. In August, however, negotiations reached an impasse.

The United States imposed new tariffs on Canadian goods, and Canada subsequently announced retaliatory measures.

For commercial real estate, the greatest immediate risk may not be the tariffs themselves. It is uncertainty.

Real estate investment depends heavily on visibility.

Buyers want to understand where rents are going. Developers need confidence in construction costs and demand. Lenders need to assess future cash flows. Businesses need confidence before expanding facilities or signing long-term leases.

When visibility decreases, decisions tend to take longer.

Industrial Real Estate Could Feel the Effects First

Among Québec’s major commercial real estate sectors, industrial real estate is arguably the most directly exposed to changes in Canada–U.S. trade.

Manufacturers, distributors, logistics companies and exporters make location decisions based partly on supply chains and access to markets.

Companies exposed to U.S. tariffs could postpone expansions or reconsider capital expenditures until there is greater clarity.

That could temporarily affect demand for certain industrial properties.

But there is another side to the story.

Trade uncertainty may encourage Canadian businesses to diversify suppliers, increase domestic production and maintain more inventory closer to customers.

That could support demand for:

• manufacturing facilities;
• warehouses and distribution centres;
• logistics properties;
• strategically located industrial land; and
• facilities serving Canadian rather than exclusively U.S. supply chains.

Québec could therefore experience both winners and losers within the industrial sector.

Construction Costs Are Another Major Issue

Commercial real estate investors should also pay close attention to construction costs.

Tariffs affecting steel, equipment, machinery, electronics and other building-related products can ultimately influence development costs.

Even relatively small increases matter.

When construction costs rise, the residual value of development land can decline unless rents or sale prices increase enough to compensate.

Some projects that worked financially six months ago may require new underwriting.

Developers should therefore stress-test projects using higher construction costs, longer timelines and more conservative exit assumptions.

Multifamily Remains Fundamentally Different

The Québec multifamily sector is less directly connected to international trade.

Its fundamentals remain primarily driven by housing demand, population, household formation, supply, rents and financing conditions.

That does not make apartments immune from economic uncertainty.

If trade tensions materially weaken employment or economic growth, rent growth and household formation could eventually be affected.

However, compared with other asset classes, well-located multifamily properties continue to offer something investors value enormously during uncertain periods:

predictable demand.

This could continue directing institutional and private capital toward stabilized residential assets.

Capital May Become More Selective

Periods of uncertainty do not necessarily eliminate capital.

They change where capital goes.

Investors typically become more selective about:

• tenant quality;
• lease duration;
• location;
• replacement cost;
• debt coverage;
• development risk; and
• certainty of income.

Properties with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals could therefore command an even greater premium relative to assets requiring aggressive assumptions.

The gap between high-quality assets and more speculative properties could widen.

Québec Could Also Benefit From Economic Diversification

There is another potential consequence that should not be overlooked.

If Canadian companies accelerate efforts to diversify away from dependence on the United States, Québec could benefit from new investment in domestic manufacturing, logistics, technology, energy and infrastructure.

Québec has several structural advantages: relatively competitive electricity, a significant industrial base, access to ports and rail infrastructure, and proximity to major North American markets.

The longer trade uncertainty persists, the more businesses may rethink where they manufacture, store and distribute products.

Commercial real estate will ultimately follow those decisions.

What Should Investors Do?

This is not a market in which investors should stop investing.

It is a market in which investors should underwrite more carefully.

We believe buyers should increasingly stress-test acquisitions against slower economic growth, higher construction costs, tenant exposure to U.S. trade and potentially longer transaction or development timelines.

At the same time, uncertainty often creates opportunity.

Owners who understand their assets, buyers who have access to capital and investors willing to look beyond the headlines can find opportunities when others hesitate.

The Bottom Line

Canada–U.S. trade tensions introduce another layer of uncertainty into Québec commercial real estate.

But uncertainty does not mean inactivity.

It means investors need better information, better underwriting and a clearer understanding of the economic forces affecting each asset.

Industrial real estate will likely remain the sector most directly connected to developments in the Canada–U.S. relationship. Multifamily should remain comparatively defensive, while development opportunities will increasingly depend on construction costs and financing.

The next several months could produce a wider gap between buyers and sellers.

They could also create some of the most interesting acquisition opportunities we have seen in years.

In commercial real estate, periods of uncertainty rarely eliminate opportunity. They change where we need to look for it.