Let’s be direct.
Despite ongoing efforts, the strength of our current responses remains insufficient relative to the depth of the housing crisis. We have yet to fully grasp the destructive cycle we are in, one driven by scarcity, speculation, and increasing pressure on households.
Yes, we must simplify and accelerate regulations to build more, faster, and at lower cost.
Yes, we must invest heavily in social housing.
But even these critical measures will have limited impact as long as vacancy rates remain at historically low levels.
The reality is simple: scarcity fuels speculation.
Today, many households are no longer choosing their homes, they are trapped in them. And for a growing number, the only remaining option is exclusion from the market altogether.
Rethinking How We Measure Success
The true measure of a healthy housing market is not just how many units we build.
It is our ability to create availability.
We must shift our approach:
- From targeting a number of new units
- To targeting a vacancy rate
A functional market is one where options exist.
A Clear Target: 7% Vacancy
Historical data is clear.
A vacancy rate of around 7% creates the conditions where:
- Rent growth slows
- Falls below inflation
- Real purchasing power improves
This is the tipping point where the market begins to stabilize.
Yet public policies, from urban planning frameworks to government housing strategies, continue to ignore this reality by failing to define any vacancy targets.
Building more without knowing if it is enough is not a strategy.
It is guesswork.
We Need to Build Availability
It may sound counterintuitive, but solving this crisis is not just about building units.
It is about building enough units so that some remain available.
A permanently full housing market is not healthy.
It is a warning sign.
A Challenge of Historic Scale
Reversing this trend will require more than incremental change.
It will demand:
- Smart fiscal policy
- Agile regulation
- Bold urban planning
- Targeted incentives
- Real leadership
And importantly, leveraging the non profit sector as a driver of innovation and cost efficient delivery.
An Economic and Social Issue
The housing crisis is not just a real estate issue.
It is economic, social, and human.
When housing costs rise:
- Health outcomes decline
- Dignity is compromised
- Prosperity is reduced
And ultimately, decades of social progress are at risk.
Conclusion
A healthy housing market is built on a simple truth:
Abundance creates stability.
Closing the supply gap and maintaining meaningful availability is not optional.
It is essential to the future of our cities and our economy.