In a recent report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), January 2024 witnessed a significant adjustment in the housing starts landscape across Canada. Here’s a snapshot of the key findings:
Monthly SAAR Decrease:
January saw a 10% decrease in the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of housing starts, dipping to 223,589 units from December 2023’s 248,968 units.
Trend Measure Dips:
The six-month trend in housing starts also showed a slight decrease of 2%, moving from 249,757 units in December to 244,827 units in January.
Year-Over-Year Growth:
Contrasting the monthly and trend decreases, the actual number of housing starts in centres with over 10,000 population surged by 13% year-over-year, with a notable 49% increase in Toronto. However, Vancouver and Montreal experienced declines.
Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist, highlighted, “Despite the trend performance, actual starts saw strong year-over-year growth, driven by high multi-unit starts, especially in Toronto, marking the second highest number of housing starts for January since 1990.”
Urban vs. Rural Dynamics:
- Urban starts decreased by 11%, with a marked decline in multi-unit starts by 14%.
- Single-detached urban starts slightly increased by 0.08%.
- Rural starts estimate stood at 15,470 units.
Regional Highlights:
- Toronto showcased a remarkable 179% increase in total SAAR housing starts.
- Montreal and Vancouver saw declines due to decreases in multi-unit starts.
Forward-Looking:
CMHC emphasizes the use of trend measures alongside SAAR to provide a clearer picture of the housing supply landscape. This data plays a crucial role in informing future policy decisions and understanding the new housing market dynamics.
As we navigate through these fluctuations, it’s evident that the housing market continues to be a complex landscape with varying regional dynamics. The insights provided by CMHC are invaluable in shaping the understanding and decisions of governments, consumers, and the housing industry at large.
Stay tuned for the February housing starts data, set to be released on March 15, 2024.